The 300-millionth American

I work at the Population Studies Center as a project coordinator. I get the distinct pleasure of working with William Frey (Bill), who is a national demographer of some distinction. Most of the year he is at the Brookings Institute, but this time of year he is here at U.Mich to teach a class.

Lately he has been getting a lot of media attention -- with requests for appearances or as a radio talk show guest -- because the 300 millionth American is expected to be born (or will immigrate) this month. (Bill on NPR last week.) There is no way to tell for sure at what exact moment this will occur, but when looking at the stats, Bill projects that the 300 millionth baby will be Hispanic, born to a working class couple, on October 17, in Los Angelos County.

(I thought this was interesting, because my friend Kelly lives in LA and is expecting a baby on October 15. But she doesn't fit the racial profile. Still...Could be her baby!!!)

Why does Bill predict this milestone citizen will be Hispanic? Statistics show Latinos – immigrants and those born in this country – are driving US population growth, accounting for 49% of the increase in population last year, more than any other ethnic or racial group.

A quote from Bill appearing on Scripps-Howard new service in June: "Most Americans would be surprised to know that the odds are very unlikely that the 300 millionth person will be a domestically born Caucasian."

Only 18 percent of recent population growth has been among non-Hispanic white people, while blacks account for 14 percent, Asians for 14 percent and American Indians for 4 percent.

When looking through stories on the Internet that quote Bill on this subject, most interesting to me was comparing America now with American when the 200 millionth baby was born, in 1967, less than 40 years ago.

• 1967 - 56 people per square mile.
  2006 - 84 people per square mile.


• 1967 - 9.7 million residents foreign-born (1 in every 20).
  2006 - 36 million foreign-born (1 in every 8).


• 1967 - 5 cities with at least 1 million population.
  2006 - 44 urban areas of this size.

Other facts

• The United States added 2.8 million people last year – a little more than a million from immigration and about 1.7 million because births outnumbered deaths.



• The United States is the third-largest country in the world, behind China and India. Its population is increasing by a little less than 1 percent a year.



• The world, with a population of 6.5 billion, is growing a little faster than 1 percent a year.

This is all very interesting, and a good time to stop and take inventory on what the country is like now, and what the country, and the world, will be like when our resources are and will continue to be stretched. Not to be dark, but it is my nature to look at the bigger picture -- shall we?

What does this mean for the future of humankind?
While many assert that the nightmare of a Malthusian catastrophe has been counterbalanced by the Green Revolution, other social science theorists believe that the disaster originally predicted by Malthus in 1798 is in fact underway, with a large percentage of the human population living in misery. (e.g. In developing countries, 29,000 children die EVERY DAY from preventable diseases).

Considering stats like this, one feels lucky to be an American, and more able to grasp the reasons behind the high immigration rate. But, when faced with these facts, is it moral to continue using more than our share of the world's resources? How can we shift our deep cultural bent toward overconsumption?

In reality, we aren't going to be the lucky ones for long. The affluence we now experience is temporary, unique to a few generations. In time, all of humanity will need to face the idea of resource limitations. Some experts believe the world will reach 16 billion before population rates begin to decrease.

We are humans, the most adaptable animal on the planet (besides insects, perhaps). What are we going to do about this? What is the world going to be like when that 300 millionth American baby is in their thirties (which is right about the time the 400 millionth American baby is due)? I don't have kids, but I still feel I owe it to him or her to not only ponder this question, but to take action. To me, all indicators suggest we need to begin the shift to a global perspective.

Comments/discussion encouraged